A Service Company Take on 2020 Projections – Permian, Bakken, Marcellus | Renegade
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As we wrap up this decade, we take a look back in the oil & gas industry and reflect on the contrasting cycles. There were periods of fruitful gain for some and throbbing pain for others. This year was a great reflection of the decade, exhibiting both boom and bust cycles in time that some have flagged as peak domestic production and the “height” of the great shale revolution.

That doesn’t mean the suffering is over by any means! The 2020 horizon will undoubtedly bring regulatory change, capex alterations, and supply & demand fluctuations that have few companies excited, and some optimistically cautious hoping that it’s a year of transition leading to better times ahead.

If you made it here, you may or may not have been looking for any given topic relating to 2020 projections, forecasts, outlooks, insights, analyses, predictions, recommendations, or planning, to name a few. Whatever it was that got you here, welcome! We have compiled a list of all things oil and gas in 2020 to serve as a quick reference list to all that new year oil & gas development goodness.

Happy Holidays!

-The Renegade Team


Table of Contents

CapEx 2020

Hart Energy Operator Profile 2020

Shale Experts Capital Expenditure Database
(Subscription required)

2020 Outlook & Forecasts

Hart Energy Production Forecast

McKinsey 2020 Oil & Gas Outlook

Deloitte 2020 Oil, Gas, and Chemical Industry Outlook

Forbes Growth In U.S. Natural Gas Production Should Slow In 2020

Enverus Crude Forecasts

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

IHS Markit 2020 Outlook

OFS 2020 Outlook

 

 


CapEx 2020

Hart Energy Key Players Shale Producer Profiles

Hart has put together a nice profile of the top 43 shale producers in the US. Each operator has a short profile of size and shape metrics like production, rig & frac crew count, acreage, and planned capex totals or percentage change from the previous year. Each profile has a link to the latest investor update which we have shortcut here:

Antero
Apache
Ascent
BPX
Cabot
Centennial
Chesapeake
Chevron
Chief
Cimarex
CNX
Concho
ConocoPhillips
Continental
Devon
Diamondback Energy
Encana
Endeavor
EOG
EQT
Equinor
FourPoint Energy
Hess
HighPoint Resources
Lewis Energy
Laredo Petroleum
Marathon
Matador
Mewbourne Oil
Murphy
Noble
Oasis Petroleum
Oxy
Parsley Energy
PDC
Pioneer Natural Resources
QEP
Range
Shell
SM Energy
SWN
Whiting Petroleum
WPX

The Renegade Take:

There is still an awful lot of new development that will take place next year. Some budgets may be lower than last year, but most budgets seem to be fairly strong to keep production up. We think that adaptations to technology-based systems and practices as the efficiency movement in drilling & completions will remain a key driver of the services market. Conventional assets particularly offshore may see a boost in activity in the coming year too.


Shale Experts Capital Expenditure Database

(Subscription required)

A phenomenal resource compiling major oil & gas producer spending data broken down by capital types including: Total capex, drilling & completion budgets, infrastructure and facilities budgets, and land budgets.

The Renegade Take:

We have our fingers crossed that next year volatility drops and operations stabilize for more than the short-term.


2020 Outlook & Forecasts

Hart Energy Oil And Gas Production Forecast: 2020 And Beyond

Hart Energy & Enverus (formerly DrillingInfo) have put together an analysis of 2020 forecast and displaying trends in areas such as permitting, engineering, operators, midstream, and more. Additionally, the analysis breaks down the drying up of capital investment resulting in slowed growth and sustainable operations from free cash flow generation. There are many macro-view breakdowns of basin specific analysis showcased here through the Enverus platform.

Source: Enverus

The Renegade Take: 

Common theme here is to find efficiency gains even with a reduced budget to drive returns on capital. Spending the least amount while sustaining production can only come from one place – technology adoption!

 

Source: Enverus


McKinsey 2020 Oil & Gas Outlook

Longer term outlook from MicKinsey streamlining 2018 growth through 2035. Most notable prediction here is the layout of a global recession coupled with OPEC negotiations and price support even with high US production and lower-breakevens.


Deloitte 2020 Oil, Gas, and Chemical Industry Outlook

Forecasting a market balance with slightly lower US shale production coupled with OPEC cuts that give some much needed stability to producers and investors alike.


Forbes Growth In U.S. Natural Gas Production Should Slow In 2020

An analysis by JTC Energy Research Associates highlighting the realities of sustained low gas prices relative to the realities of our dependence on them as a nation.

The Renegade Take:

Gas prices could use a sustained uptick. We will help support any way we can.


Enverus – Four Crude Forecasts That Caught Our Attention at the Energy Trading Risk Summit

Pricing scenarios based on current metrics of exports, operator guidance, and what the world is willing to absorb.


EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

Always a good resource to have as a reference on a regular basis.


IHS Markit 2020 Outlook

Growth will finally slowdown according to IHS Markit.

Going from nearly 2 million barrels per day annual growth in 2018, an all-time global record, to essentially no growth by 2021 makes it pretty clear that this is a new era of moderation for shale producers,” said Raoul LeBlanc VP for North American unconventionals, IHS Markit, “This is a dramatic shift after several years where annual growth of more than one million barrels per day was the norm.”


OFS 2020 Outlook

From Rystad Energy, a recent report outlines how low oil prices could cause a slight recession in oilfield services from double digit growth this year to single-digit growth in 2020. Additionally, 2021 looks to rebound from a slight dip in the action.

The Renegade Take:

We are hopeful that with higher oil prices that services will remain steady in the coming year with projects scheduled to be consistent throughout the course of the year.

Thank you for reading! Stayed tuned for more updates as reports come out during the last few weeks of the year.

-Renegade Services

DISCLAIMER: Renegade Services remains a neutral-party to all of other companies referenced in any blog post listed on our website. The opinions in any blog post do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or position of Renegade Services at any point beyond our current time of publishing.

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